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Gambling Willies Horse Racing Handicapping Systems

Using Jockey Trainer Combinations to Find Winners When Horse Racing Handicapping

By Bill Peterson

A lot has been written and said about using jockey and trainer combinations or statistics to find good bets. Almost everyone who handicaps horse races knows that there are some teams of jockeys and trainers that win a lot of races, or so it seems.

But just how important is that fact when you are handicapping horse races? For instance, let's say you see a great pair like Jose Lezcano and Anthony Dutrow, a jockey trainer combo with a 73% in the money record at Monmouth Park. How big of a factor is that?

The question that you really have to ask yourself is this, how much of an impact is that publicly known information having upon the odds? That is what really matters. Many racing programs and past performances now show those statistics so it is common knowledge and many people will jump all over it, or so it seems.

An example is the third race at Monmouth on September 10th. It was a five horse race and the team of Lezcano/Dutrow were sending a 5 year old Gelding, Lemons of Love, to post at odds of 7-2. The morning line on Lemons of Love was 3-1, so even though the connections looked pretty hot and the track handicapper thought highly of the horse, it was going off a bit over morning line odds. This isn't exactly a huge red flag waving in our faces, but it does cause us to take another look and to consider it a good bet.

The favorite in the race, a 6 year old gelding, Mr. Umphrey, was being sent postward by another good combination, Eddie Castro and Richard Dutrow, Jr. They have a strike rate of 58% in the money. Comparing the two rates of 58% to 75% we find that Lezcano/Dutrow are in the money 25% more often. So just looking at that one statistic, it is obvious that flat betting the Lezcano/Dutrow team will give you a 25% advantage. But now, here is the real key to finding value, Mr. Umphrey has a morning line figure of 9-5, but actually went to post at even money.

I realize this is a very simplistic example and I am outlining a simple process to find value, but it does make you think, doesn't it? The connections are in the money 25% more often. The horse is going off above morning line odds in a short field race. If you didn't have a lot of time to handicap the race and could only use the toteboard, morning line, and jockey/trainer stats, which horse would you bet on? The obvious answer is Lemons of Love.

For anyone who used that simple bit of logic, the payoff on the winner, Lemons of Love, was
$9.40 3.80 3.20. Also, because Mr. Umphrey finished fourth, the exotics paid well for such a short field.

Whenever you are having trouble picking winners, remember this simple example, take a step back and look at the very basics and see if there isn't some obvious bit of information that can be coupled with one other bit of information to point you toward a good bet.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, "Horse Racing is in my blood." To see all Bill's horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html Bill's handicapping store.

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What it Takes to Make a Profit and a Living From Horse Racing Handicapping

By Bill Peterson

Are you one of the many people who is trying to make a living or supplement your income with horse racing?

Every week I have people email me asking if it is really possible to make a profit from horse racing and whether they can make a living at handicapping races. I try to answer them honestly and it probably costs me many sales. On the other hand, over the years, it has helped me to develop a following of people who would rather hear the truth than a sales pitch.

I have had years when I made a profit from horse racing. It was work, but I kept good records and knew at the end of the year that I had indeed made money. So to answer the question, is it possible to make a profit from horse racing handicapping, the answer is, yes. But, that doesn't mean that you can do it, it only means that I did it. I like to tell people that I am not the sharpest tack in the box, so I believe that many other people can and probably do make a profit at the horse races.

But like I said, I don't know if you can do it, that depends on many factors. First of all, let me assure you, that if you are strapped for cash and trying to make money at the races, it will be some tough sledding. Risking money you can't afford to lose is almost certain to cause you more problems and is not a sound plan to solve your money problems. Scared money doesn't win.

On the other hand, if you can put aside a bankroll, school yourself with a few good systems and practice using them, then you may be able to show a profit. But, once again, there is a difference between making a profit and making a living. How much money do you need? How much money do you have to bankroll your handicapping project?

While things seldom work out as easily or cleanly in real life as they do on paper, I always advise people to sit down first and outline their goals, especially financial goals. The first question to be answered is, how much do you have in your bankroll? Secondly, how much do you want to make? Finally, how much will you have to wager per day, week, month, year, to achieve your goal with a 10% profit?

That 10% is arbitrary, I realize that, but it is a starting figure. If you can make 10% profit over the long haul from your bets at the horse races, you're doing good. If you can show a better profit ratio, my hat is off to you. So let's say you are extremely good at handicapping horse races and can make a profit of 20% on all your wagers over time.

To make a yearly figure of $10,000, hardly enough to support a person in the United States, unless you like the taste of cat food and don't mind keeping your belongings in a shopping cart, then you will have to make $50,000 worth of bets in a year to reach that goal of $10,000. You can plug in your own numbers, I am just trying to show the process that I recommend you use to decide how realistic your goals are.

My own recommendation is that you first find a good system and learn how to use it making small bets that you can afford. Once you have a good idea of what you can do, then sit down and make a plan on paper using a similar process.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, "Horse Racing is in my blood." To see all Bill's horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html Bill's handicapping store.

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Which Kind of Horse Racing System Should I Use to Make a Consistent Profit

By Bill Peterson

Every day, millions of people around the world watch and bet on horse races to make a profit. That is the truth. We love it as a spectator sport, the thrill of watching the ups and downs of great horses like Big Brown and Curlin, but we also love the fact that if we do it right, we can make money betting on the sport of kings.

But like many things in life it takes a systematic approach. A good horse racing system can pay for itself many times over, once you've customized it a little to suit your taste and style. But there are so many kinds of systems out there, how do you know which one is right for you?

Let's break it down into two categories and two kinds of bets. Of course this is a very simplistic approach but I am going to use it to demonstrate the right thought process that you can use to find the right system from the thousands that are available.

The two major categories are...

1. Medium to short priced contenders
2. Long shots

The two major kinds of systems are...

1. Situational
2. Fundamental

Categories...
Using a system to find short to medium priced horses will give you lots of action because there are contenders in this group in almost any race. It will also usually mean shorter losing streaks because those horses win more often.

Long shots are fewer and farther between because if they are a long shot, there is usually a very good reason, however, there are still some good long shot bets to be found.

Kinds...
Situational systems help you to find a particular situation in a race and then to bet the horse(s) who fills the conditions of the situation. They are often called spot plays and easily found with very little judgment or thought other than whether they meet the requirements of the system.

Fundamental systems give you the basics to compare all runners and then make decisions based on the properties that each contender exhibits. They require more independent thought and judgment on the pat of the user and therefore are more subject to error, but also more flexible and allow you to develop your own style.

Conclusions...
Given the basic criteria above, and I realize this is very simplistic, it is up to you to decide which kind of handicapping system you can work with. Do you require a lot of action? Do you want something to be automatic or do you want to be able to develop your own decision making skills? It really comes down to your own personality and knowing yourself and your strengths and weaknesses. The rest is just a matter of looking at the systems that are available and picking a good one.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, "Horse Racing is in my blood." To see all Bill's horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html Bill's handicapping store.

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Horse Racing Betting System to Beat the Favorite and Have Lots of Action and Fun

By Bill Peterson

Many people have asked me if there is a way to beat the odds and win at horse racing without handicapping the races. It is hard enough to beat the races with a good methodology and knowledge of the horses so just winning by luck or with a betting system is pretty hard. But I will try to outline a simple way to help you to improve your chances, though there are no guarantees and this should just be considered for entertainment.

In other words, you probably won't get rich with this method, but maybe you'll come out a few bucks ahead or at least lose less in the long run and have some fun picking some winners without a lot of reading and book work. If you like action this is a good way to play a lot of races.

The whole idea of making a profit at the race track is to beat the crowd and consequently, the favorite of the crowd, since that is where most of the money is wagered. Favorites win about 30-35% of the time, so in about 2 out of 3 races the favorite loses and the crowd's money is distributed among the people who backed one of the other horses (obviously the one that won).

It might help you to know the odds of one of the other horses winning. The second favorite (the horse at the second lowest odds) usually wins about 20% of the time. The third favorite a little less and so forth. Of course it matters how many horses are entered in the race, but you get the idea. If you just randomly bet on the horse with the second lowest odds in every race in the course of enough races to make a statistically valid sample, you'll win about 20% of the time. But of course, as usual, between the track's takeout and breakage, you'll wind up losing in the end.

A lot of people know that the favorite wins about a third of the time, but did you know that the odds on the favorite determine just how likely it is in win? All favorites do not have an equal chance of winning. The lower the odds, the more likely a horse is to win. So a favorite at low odds of say, 3-5 is much more likely to win than a favorite at 5-2. My advice, therefore, is to beat the favorite that is less likely to win.

For instance, let's say there is a race with a favorite at 5-2, and the second favorite is at 7-2 and the third favorite is at 7-2 and the fourth favorite is at 9-2. The favorite in the race has less than a third of a chance of winning so one of those other horses is likely to win, right? A horse going off at 7-2 will pay a nice mutuel of $9 for every two dollars bet on that runner. A horse at 9-2 will pay $11. That means that of the next three horses in the race who have a chance to win, the lowest payoff is $9. You could make a $2 bet on each of those three horses and bet against the lukewarm favorite and have an excellent chance of winning. If one of the horses at 7-2 wins you'll get $9. You will have spent $6 to back the three horses so your profit is 50% above your costs for the bets. On top of that, you bet against a horse that has less than a 30% chance of winning!

Think about that, you get a 50% profit and the horse you are betting against is likely to lose. Obviously another horse you haven't bet on could win the race, but you have covered the most likely winners with your bet. The key to this betting strategy is to have more ways to win than to lose and betting on three horses with odds almost as good as the one horse you are betting against certainly tips the scales in your favor.

But there is more to it than that because you can tip the scales a little more in your favor. I recommend you go to an otb or racebook where there are many tracks being simulcast. Look at the odds boards and find races with a short field of six or seven horses or less where the favorite is going off at over 2-1 odds. Wait until it is almost post time and bet on the next two or three horses at the shortest odds to the favorite.

I want to stress that this is not a get rich quick scheme and not guaranteed to make money. It is meant for recreational betting and fun only. Try it on paper first if you like. But if you like a lot of action and don't want to spend hours handicapping, this method will have you cashing tickets all day, simply by reading the toteboard and knowing that the favorite is likely to lose. Not only that, but when you bet on a race you'll have several chances of winning in each race and you will have beat the crowd and the favorite. This is just one of the simpler ways that I have taught people to enjoy horseracing and how to use a good system to bet.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, "Horse Racing is in my blood." To see all Bill's horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html, Bill's handicapping store.

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Horse Racing Handicapping Using Paths and Speed Points

By Bill Peterson

Here is an interesting angle to consider in your horse racing handicapping that you may have never thought of before. In harness racing, especially on half mile tracks, when a horse is denied the rail and forced to race in the two path or "second over," it has to race much farther than the horses running on the rail and it usually means the race is lost for that one.

Thoroughbreds also race in different paths and that can mean the difference between winning and losing. Some services provide information on track biases and where the first three finishers of most races run, in other words whether they are on the rail, in the second path, or third path, etc. While being outside of the rail path means less in thoroughbred racing, it is still important, more so in some races at certain distances and at certain tracks.

First it is a good idea to know where most runners score from at each distance at the track(s) you usually play. Once you know that information, the next thing is to try to determine where each horse in a race will run. For instance, in a long race that starts near the turn, many times the outside post positions rarely win because horses get hung out wide going into the turn. Only horses that start incredibly slowly and therefore wind up easily slipping over to the rail behind the pack, or horses with blinding early speed that shoot over to the rail ahead of the pack, have a chance of getting on the rail path, which we all know is the shortest distance to the winners circle.

But how do you know which part of the track your horse will run on? How do you know which path it will be able to get to and score from? The answer is, no one knows for sure and it is hard to calculate, but not impossible to have a rough idea. The most important part is, when you're trying to pick winners at the horse track, finding a horse that may run into traffic problems during the race and avoiding that scenario can greatly improve your horse racing handicapping.

The way to do that is to read each horse's speed points and fractional times and try to determine where each runner will be at each stage of the race. For instance, if there are three horses who figure to run right behind the leader, and you like the horse with the outside post position of the three, then you can probably figure the other two horses will be between your horse and the rail. In other words, it will run from the three path.

That isn't so bad as long as there will only be two horses in front of it, but if you like a horse but figure it will be kept off the rail and have to contend with a wall of horses in front of it, then you are depending upon some racing luck and the jockey finding an opening as they turn into the stretch. Many times, these runners encounter problems and wind up finishing in the money but missing the win. The larger the field the more tactical speed becomes important.

Try handicapping a few races and figuring which path each horse will be in and which ones will encounter problems or have to take up in the stretch or turn and you may be amazed at how good you are at spotting trouble and avoiding those bets. Avoid a few bad bets a day and you will find you are soon making a profit from the horse races.

Here is an interesting angle to consider in your horse racing handicapping that you may have never thought of before. In harness racing, especially on half mile tracks, when a horse is denied the rail and forced to race in the two path or "second over," it has to race much farther than the horses running on the rail and it usually means the race is lost for that one.

Thoroughbreds also race in different paths and that can mean the difference between winning and losing. Some services provide information on track biases and where the first three finishers of most races run, in other words whether they are on the rail, in the second path, or third path, etc. While being outside of the rail path means less in thoroughbred racing, it is still important, more so in some races at certain distances and at certain tracks.

First it is a good idea to know where most runners score from at each distance at the track(s) you usually play. Once you know that information, the next thing is to try to determine where each horse in a race will run. For instance, in a long race that starts near the turn, many times the outside post positions rarely win because horses get hung out wide going into the turn. Only horses that start incredibly slowly and therefore wind up easily slipping over to the rail behind the pack, or horses with blinding early speed that shoot over to the rail ahead of the pack, have a chance of getting on the rail path, which we all know is the shortest distance to the winners circle.

But how do you know which part of the track your horse will run on? How do you know which path it will be able to get to and score from? The answer is, no one knows for sure and it is hard to calculate, but not impossible to have a rough idea. The most important part is, when you're trying to pick winners at the horse track, finding a horse that may run into traffic problems during the race and avoiding that scenario can greatly improve your horse racing handicapping.

The way to do that is to read each horse's speed points and fractional times and try to determine where each runner will be at each stage of the race. For instance, if there are three horses who figure to run right behind the leader, and you like the horse with the outside post position of the three, then you can probably figure the other two horses will be between your horse and the rail. In other words, it will run from the three path.

That isn't so bad as long as there will only be two horses in front of it, but if you like a horse and figure it will be kept off the rail and have to contend with a wall of horses in front of it, then you are depending upon some racing luck and the jockey finding an opening as they turn into the stretch. Many times, these runners encounter problems and wind up finishing in the money but missing the win. The larger the field the more tactical speed becomes important.

Try handicapping a few races and figuring which path each horse will be in and which ones will encounter problems or have to take up in the stretch or turn and you may be amazed at how good you are at spotting trouble and avoiding those bets. Avoid a few bad bets a day and you will find you are soon making a profit from the horse races.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, "Horse Racing is in my blood." To see all Bill's horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html, Bill's handicapping store.

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Two Keys to Winning Long Shot Bets When Handicapping Horse Races

By Bill Peterson

Winning long shots is a great thrill and, of course, very profitable as long as you don't spend more money hitting the long shot than the bet pays. The key to making money off wagers on long priced horses is to do it selectively. Just wagering on a horse because it is a long shot won't result in long term profits.

So a few guidelines to eliminate bad bets and to find good ones will help to increase profits. In order to understand what makes a good longshot bet, let's look at the competition first.

Key #1. Large fields reduce your chances of winning due to racing luck, traffic problems, and unknown factors.

The more horses there are in a race, the greater the possibility that any horse you bet on, whether a favorite, longshot, or something in between, will run into traffic. You must also take into account racing luck. Racing luck means all those little intangible things, like stumbling, getting bumped, having to dodge a fallen horse, etc, that can happen when there are more horses in a race. Then there are the unknown factors. As you handicap a horse race you look at all the information available for each runner. Sometimes you might miss something or it just isn't in print, but is still a vital factor. The more horses, the more the chances of a bit of information slipping by you and costing you the win.

Key #2. Lightning does strikes twice, or the old "two thing."

The second key is about something happening twice. They say lightning never strikes the same place twice, but that isn't true. Actually lightning often strikes the same place twice because there was something, like an iron deposit in the ground, that made it strike in the first place, which is sort of why the old "two thing," works. I call it the two thing because I've noticed that if something happens once, it will often happen again.

Applying this key to longshots, if a horse has won at the distance, on the same surface, and the same level of competition before, I think it makes it a better wager. So one of the keys to finding a good long shot bet is to find a horse that has done what you are asking of it today. It is that simple. You will occasionally even find that the only horse in the field that has actually done all that is a long shot. Many favorites have never demonstrated the ability to win at the distance and level of competition, and yet people bet them down to short odds.

To sum it up, when looking for good longshot bets, two keys to winning are, 1. avoid large fields, and 2. look for a runner who has proven that it can succeed under similar conditions.

Longshots are the best bets when you know how to rate them with Bill's Longshot Rater at http://williewins.homestead.com - Bill has been around Horseracing for 50 years and knows how to spot a good bet and loves to teach others. He is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, "Horse Racing is in my blood." To see all Bill's horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html - Bill's handicapping store.

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Horse Racing Tip Number 3, Using Weight As a Handicapping Factor When Picking Winners

By Bill Peterson

Weight as a handicapping factor is one of the most misunderstood tools a horse player can use when picking winning bets. The problem is that there are so many factors now available to people who are trying to make sense of the races.

Years ago, when punters were trying to pick a "good one," they had very little information available to them. They could read who the trainer and jockey was and perhaps whether the horse had won its last races, as well as how much weight the racing secretary had assigned to the runner, but there wasn't anywhere near as much horse data available as there in now.

For instance, there was no such thing as speed points or speed figures, or even track models. Therefore, weight was considered an important tool to find a winner. As more information became available, weight was forgotten as a handicapping tool.

One of the big problems is that no one ever really knew how much weight affected a horse's performance. The old saying is, "Enough weight will stop an elephant." But usually, the difference in weight that each runner will carry is only a matter of a few pounds. It just doesn't seem that important.

But I still look at the assigned weights and use that information. The way I use that information is to understand which horse fits the conditions of the race the best and also how the racing secretary handicapped the runners. Racing secretaries are experts at comparing horses and therefore, when they assign weights, they are letting you know what each horse's chances are of winning the race.

So the next time you handicap a race, look at the weights and read the conditions and see why each horse is carrying its assigned weight. Think of what the racing secretary is telling you about each horse. The racing secretary is really helping you to handicap the race and he or she is an expert well versed in each animal's running lines, don't pass up the chance to use that expertise to your own advantage.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, "Horse Racing is in my blood." To see all Bill's horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html, Bill's handicapping store.

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How I Became a Horse Racing Fanatic, Handicapper and Race Track Denizen

How I Became a Horse Racing Fanatic, Handicapper and Race Track Denizen
By Bill Peterson

Several ex-wives, dozens of friends, and some passersby in my life have asked me how I got this way. What makes a man get all wrapped up in horse racing and spend his days poring over racing forms, the internet, and watching race replays? What makes a man lay awake at night trying to decide if one horse will have more early speed with blinkers and if the Cornell collar is really all its cracked up to be?

In my particular case, I have to admit I got started on this path of picking winners and living, breathing, and loving horseracing very early in life. It all started when I was a little kid. My grandfather worked the local tracks helping trainers and exercising horses in the mornings. In the afternoon I accompanied him to the races.

Nowadays, kids have their parents come into school and explain what they do for a living. On other days parents take their kids to work with them so their progeny will know what the heck pops or mom does for a living to pay the bills. My parents never took me to work with them (except for the summer that Mom picked peas and beans for a living) but they were very happy to get me out from under feet.

I guess my parents didn't know what to do with me and it seemed like a good idea at the time. Gramps didn't mind taking me along and one of my earliest memories is standing at the fence at the old Lincoln Downs in Rhode Island and watching the horses legs go flashing by while the ground shook from the pounding of their hooves. The adults were shouting and carrying on something awful and I knew then that whatever it was that had just happened must be wonderful and as soon as I was old enough, I was going to get involved in it.

If I could have just stayed little everything would have been all right, but I grew and grew and it soon became apparent that I wouldn't be a jockey unless they started racing elephants. Years later I groomed horses and owned a few race horses, but handicapping and betting horses has become my passion. There are many ups and downs, but it's worth it.

So if you happen to be at the track on any old day and see an old curmudgeon with a stale cigar clamped in his teeth, squinting at a program and mumbling about track variants and tongue ties, it may just be this old horseplayer. Gramps long ago went to that winner's circle in the sky, but the tradition lives on.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, "Horse Racing is in my blood." To see all Bill's horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html - Bill's handicapping store.

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How to Win Money at the Horse Races Without Losing Your Mind - A Few Tips

By Bill Peterson

Few things in life spark the imagination more than winning real cash. It brings a gleam to almost every eye, but the lure of easy profit has cost many a fortune and ruined some lives. So if you are thinking of winning money at the horse races, take a few tips from someone who has been down that road.

The problem with the race track is that it appears that there is easy money to be made there. Nothing could be farther from the truth. Upon closer examination you will find some people working very hard there just to make a living. The people who care for the horses, train them and ride them, are hard working and earn every dollar they get. Their wages come from the owners who get some money from purses that they win, but the truth is, very few horse owners earn enough off purses to pay for their expensive hobby.

So where will the easy money come from? Ah, from the other gamblers, you say. Well those gamblers may be just like you, a hard working man or woman who is trying to make some easy cash while having some fun. But not all the people who are betting on the races are just casual gamblers. Some people take it very seriously and work very hard at it. They may earn part or even all of their living from handicapping, but that is the key word, isn't it, they "earn" that money.

If you realize you are up against professional gamblers who have a real good system and yet still have to work to earn a living, then you'll soon realize that there are two ways that you are going to win money at the horse races. The first way is just plain old luck. If you are lucky then you'll go home with your pockets filled with easy money, but who can depend on luck?

The second way is that you can fight fire with fire and use a system of your own. But while you are using the system you best be warned that you will probably have to do some work. How strong is your desire to win? How hard are you willing to work? Trying to depend upon luck can drive you crazy, so I suggest you use a system if you really want to make a profit, but do it with your eyes open and realize that there are no guarantees and you will still have to work to make that money.

So the first tip is, don't expect easy money from luck, but when it happens, enjoy it, thank your lucky stars, and put a little aside for the times when luck is in someone else's pocket.

The second tip is that if you want to make money at the horse track, plan on doing some work and plan on using a system so that the work is not in vain.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, "Horse Racing is in my blood." To see all Bill's horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html , Bill's handicapping store.

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Betting Strategy to Make You a More Successful Gambler - Rule Number One

By Bill Peterson

Gambling for money is a serious business no matter how much fun it appears to be on the surface. If you are risking real money it makes a game more exciting, but also, potentially, more painful. Therefore, a good betting strategy is an absolute must. Here is the first rule of gambling.

The first thing a person must do before playing for high stakes is to determine just how much will be in his or her bankroll. Your bankroll will determine just how large your bets will be based on your expected rate of return. Before you play a game or place a bet on a horse race, do you know how often you will be successful? If not, how do you know how large your bets will be and how many you can make without losing everything?

Here is the cardinal rule for successful betting...

"Protect your bankroll at all costs." Preservation of your starting capital is your first concern.

That means, know the odds and chances of recouping your bets plus a profit before you wager. For instance, let's say your bankroll is ten thousand units. Each unit may be an American dollar, Euro, Franc, or any other denomination, depending upon your nationality and place where the gambling is to take place. If you have ten thousand units and have determined that you will average a win every 10 bets and that the longest runs of losses in a computer simulation is 100 misses without a win, then you must be prepared for the worst case scenario in order to protect, or preserve your bankroll.

Since 100 misses is the most you expect and your bankroll is ten thousand units, divide your bankroll by 100 and you arrive at 100. So 100 units is the absolute most you should wager on any one bet or on any series of bets. Now here is another thought, how much profit do you intend to make and how much of a cushion do you need to keep your sanity. Remember the axiom, "Scared money never wins."

If risking too much will move you out of your comfort zone and begin affecting your decision making, then you need to reduce your wager amounts to a comfortable level. Just because your calculations show that you can use 100 units each time you take a chance, it doesn't mean you have to do that. Preserve your bankroll and your sanity and make good decisions. That is good betting strategy and will make your adventures as a risk taker much more enjoyable.

In our next article we'll look at reasonable expectations and return of investment.

Bill Peterson has been a professional horse player and card player for years. His innovative techniques were developed by thinking outside the box. In his own words, the result of "A life well wasted." Bill has been teaching the basics of gambling for years and you can read about Bill's Power Point Poker at
http://www.powerpointpoker.com

You can see all of Bill's horseracing handicapping methods at http://williewins.homestead.com, The Handicapping Store. "No one can make you a winner but learning the basics and a few little known secrets and techniques can advance you closer to your dream of making a profit at your favorite game. Use my methods and customize them to suit your own style and you will be ahead of 99% of the crowd."

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Horse Racing Betting System to Beat the Favorite and Have Lots of Action and Fun

By Bill Peterson

Many people have asked me if there is a way to beat the odds and win at horse racing without handicapping the races. It is hard enough to beat the races with a good methodology and knowledge of the horses so just winning by luck or with a betting system is pretty hard. But I will try to outline a simple way to help you to improve your chances, though there are no guarantees and this should just be considered for entertainment.

In other words, you probably won't get rich with this method, but maybe you'll come out a few bucks ahead or at least lose less in the long run and have some fun picking some winners without a lot of reading and book work. If you like action this is a good way to play a lot of races.

The whole idea of making a profit at the race track is to beat the crowd and consequently, the favorite of the crowd, since that is where most of the money is wagered. Favorites win about 30-35% of the time, so in about 2 out of 3 races the favorite loses and the crowd's money is distributed among the people who backed one of the other horses (obviously the one that won).

It might help you to know the odds of one of the other horses winning. The second favorite (the horse at the second lowest odds) usually wins about 20% of the time. The third favorite a little less and so forth. Of course it matters how many horses are entered in the race, but you get the idea. If you just randomly bet on the horse with the second lowest odds in every race in the course of enough races to make a statistically valid sample, you'll win about 20% of the time. But of course, as usual, between the track's takeout and breakage, you'll wind up losing in the end.

A lot of people know that the favorite wins about a third of the time, but did you know that the odds on the favorite determine just how likely it is in win? All favorites do not have an equal chance of winning. The lower the odds, the more likely a horse is to win. So a favorite at low odds of say, 3-5 is much more likely to win than a favorite at 5-2. My advice, therefore, is to beat the favorite that is less likely to win.

For instance, let's say there is a race with a favorite at 5-2, and the second favorite is at 7-2 and the third favorite is at 7-2 and the fourth favorite is at 9-2. The favorite in the race has less than a third of a chance of winning so one of those other horses is likely to win, right? A horse going off at 7-2 will pay a nice mutuel of $9 for every two dollars bet on that runner. A horse at 9-2 will pay $11. That means that of the next three horses in the race who have a chance to win, the lowest payoff is $9. You could make a $2 bet on each of those three horses and bet against the lukewarm favorite and have an excellent chance of winning. If one of the horses at 7-2 wins you'll get $9. You will have spent $6 to back the three horses so your profit is 50% above your costs for the bets. On top of that, you bet against a horse that has less than a 30% chance of winning!

Think about that, you get a 50% profit and the horse you are betting against is likely to lose. Obviously another horse you haven't bet on could win the race, but you have covered the most likely winners with your bet. The key to this betting strategy is to have more ways to win than to lose and betting on three horses with odds almost as good as the one horse you are betting against certainly tips the scales in your favor.

But there is more to it than that because you can tip the scales a little more in your favor. I recommend you go to an otb or racebook where there are many tracks being simulcast. Look at the odds boards and find races with a short field of six or seven horses or less where the favorite is going off at over 2-1 odds. Wait until it is almost post time and bet on the next two or three horses at the shortest odds to the favorite.

I want to stress that this is not a get rich quick scheme and not guaranteed to make money. It is meant for recreational betting and fun only. Try it on paper first if you like. But if you like a lot of action and don't want to spend hours handicapping, this method will have you cashing tickets all day, simply by reading the toteboard and knowing that the favorite is likely to lose. Not only that, but when you bet on a race you'll have several chances of winning in each race and you will have beat the crowd and the favorite. This is just one of the simpler ways that I have taught people to enjoy horseracing and how to use a good system to bet.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, "Horse Racing is in my blood." To see all Bill's horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html, Bill's handicapping store.

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How I Became a Horse Racing Fanatic, Handicapper and Race Track Denizen

By Bill Peterson

Several ex-wives, dozens of friends, and some passersby in my life have asked me how I got this way. What makes a man get all wrapped up in horse racing and spend his days poring over racing forms, the internet, and watching race replays? What makes a man lay awake at night trying to decide if one horse will have more early speed with blinkers and if the Cornell collar is really all its cracked up to be?

In my particular case, I have to admit I got started on this path of picking winners and living, breathing, and loving horseracing very early in life. It all started when I was a little kid. My grandfather worked the local tracks helping trainers and exercising horses in the mornings. In the afternoon I accompanied him to the races.

Nowadays, kids have their parents come into school and explain what they do for a living. On other days parents take their kids to work with them so their progeny will know what the heck pops or mom does for a living to pay the bills. My parents never took me to work with them (except for the summer that Mom picked peas and beans for a living) but they were very happy to get me out from under feet.

I guess my parents didn't know what to do with me and it seemed like a good idea at the time. Gramps didn't mind taking me along and one of my earliest memories is standing at the fence at the old Lincoln Downs in Rhode Island and watching the horses legs go flashing by while the ground shook from the pounding of their hooves. The adults were shouting and carrying on something awful and I knew then that whatever it was that had just happened must be wonderful and as soon as I was old enough, I was going to get involved in it.

If I could have just stayed little everything would have been all right, but I grew and grew and it soon became apparent that I wouldn't be a jockey unless they started racing elephants. Years later I groomed horses and owned a few race horses, but handicapping and betting horses has become my passion. There are many ups and downs, but it's worth it.

So if you happen to be at the track on any old day and see an old curmudgeon with a stale cigar clamped in his teeth, squinting at a program and mumbling about track variants and tongue ties, it may just be this old horseplayer. Gramps long ago went to that winner's circle in the sky, but the tradition lives on.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, "Horse Racing is in my blood." To see all Bill's horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html - Bill's handicapping store.

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Horse Racing Handicapping Remains the Same Despite Appearances

by, Bill Peterson

People who sell data and information would have us believe that picking winners at the horse track is different today than it was years ago. But let's take a look at what it takes to pick winners now and what it took say, 50 years ago.

Today, in order to pick winners, you have to have a good way to compare the runners. Horse racing handicapping may mean starting your computer in the morning, downloading past performances or other data provided by one of the services. It could also mean letting a software program crunch the numbers for you.

When it is all done you might print out the results. Perhaps you'll have some charts to look at that compare the horses class, speed, connections, recent races, workouts, etc. You will try to make some sense of it all and find an overlay or maybe put together an exotic bet or two. Next, you will go to a website that you can bet from with a toteboard so you can watch the odds, or perhaps you'll turn the computer off and go to an otb or track with a toteboard and place your bets there.

50 years ago you would have walked or driven to a place to get a racing program, Morning Telegraph, or Daily Racing Form, or perhaps you would have picked one up on your way out of the track. Next you would sit down with your information source and read through the races and perhaps circled or underlined things that caught your eye. Maybe you would make a few notes. When you were done you'd look each race over and compare the horses relative merits and the notes you'd made.

Then you'd go to the track and make your bets based on the odds on the toteboard.

There's no doubt about it, there is more information available now than ever before, but is that better? Isn't the process basically the same and isn't that why about the same number of favorites win? Kind of makes you wonder how much of all this information that is now available is really necessary and how much of it is just fluff that is making someone a living selling it.

Thousands of years ago two guys were riding across a wide open plain and decided to see who had the fastest horse. Maybe a few people were standing there watching and decided to place a friendly wager on it. Each person thought of what horses those horses had beaten in the past, maybe they thought about how good the riders were and also compared the sires and dams of the horses.

Basically, they did the same things we do now to pick winners. And probably, the crowd picked about the same percentage of winning favorites back then, too. I have been saying it over and over and will keep repeating it. It is the basics. Learn the basics and never lose sight of the basics of horse racing handicapping, because that is what it takes to keep picking winners.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, "Horse Racing is in my blood." To see all Bill's horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html Bill's handicapping store.

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Horse Racing Handicapping by Sight Reveals Nervous Horses and Bad Bets

By Bill Peterson

One of the advantages of going to a race track and watching live races is that you get to watch the horses being saddled and to observe them for a while before they run. The second best alternative, of course, is to watch them on a television monitor at an OTB, racebook, or some other venue. Of course, with horse racing now shown on television in the United States and still broadcast on the air in other countries, it is now possible to sit in your own home and watch them run.

Horseracing handicapping can now be done from home, but don't lose sight of the fact that being at the races and seeing the animals live is still the best. The reason for that is that these living creatures react to their environment and feelings so that the effect of their surroundings and their mood will have an impact on the race results. Observing them before they race is just another tool to add to your handicapping bag of tricks.

I have seen horses literally do a back flip in the paddock and still go out and win a race just minutes later, but that is a rare occurrence. It is much more likely that if an animal is that agitated, or frightened before a race, it isn't going to perform well. The same can be said of horses that break through the gate and have to be caught and led back and reloaded. They rarely win.

Horses that are all lathered up often break on top and set fast early fractions in a race, but rarely finish well. Learning to observe horses and making a few notes about their condition before a race can really help you to avoid bad bets and to find some really good bets at the horse races.

The ears of a horse can even indicate if it is paying attention to the jockey and trying to please or if it is nervous or distracted. Your job as a handicapper is to figure out what the signs say about the animal and wager accordingly. There are many ways to gamble in this world but one of the fun things about betting on horseracing is that you get to see beautiful live animals and to observe them and to note each one's unique character and personality. For some of us, that is half the fun.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, "Horse Racing is in my blood." To see all Bill's horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html Bill's handicapping store.

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