Two Keys to Winning Long Shot Bets When Handicapping Horse Races

By Bill Peterson

Winning long shots is a great thrill and, of course, very profitable as long as you don't spend more money hitting the long shot than the bet pays. The key to making money off wagers on long priced horses is to do it selectively. Just wagering on a horse because it is a long shot won't result in long term profits.

So a few guidelines to eliminate bad bets and to find good ones will help to increase profits. In order to understand what makes a good longshot bet, let's look at the competition first.

Key #1. Large fields reduce your chances of winning due to racing luck, traffic problems, and unknown factors.

The more horses there are in a race, the greater the possibility that any horse you bet on, whether a favorite, longshot, or something in between, will run into traffic. You must also take into account racing luck. Racing luck means all those little intangible things, like stumbling, getting bumped, having to dodge a fallen horse, etc, that can happen when there are more horses in a race. Then there are the unknown factors. As you handicap a horse race you look at all the information available for each runner. Sometimes you might miss something or it just isn't in print, but is still a vital factor. The more horses, the more the chances of a bit of information slipping by you and costing you the win.

Key #2. Lightning does strikes twice, or the old "two thing."

The second key is about something happening twice. They say lightning never strikes the same place twice, but that isn't true. Actually lightning often strikes the same place twice because there was something, like an iron deposit in the ground, that made it strike in the first place, which is sort of why the old "two thing," works. I call it the two thing because I've noticed that if something happens once, it will often happen again.

Applying this key to longshots, if a horse has won at the distance, on the same surface, and the same level of competition before, I think it makes it a better wager. So one of the keys to finding a good long shot bet is to find a horse that has done what you are asking of it today. It is that simple. You will occasionally even find that the only horse in the field that has actually done all that is a long shot. Many favorites have never demonstrated the ability to win at the distance and level of competition, and yet people bet them down to short odds.

To sum it up, when looking for good longshot bets, two keys to winning are, 1. avoid large fields, and 2. look for a runner who has proven that it can succeed under similar conditions.

Longshots are the best bets when you know how to rate them with Bill's Longshot Rater at http://williewins.homestead.com - Bill has been around Horseracing for 50 years and knows how to spot a good bet and loves to teach others. He is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, "Horse Racing is in my blood." To see all Bill's horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html - Bill's handicapping store.

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